What a Taxi Sector Case Taught Us About Hidden Risk

The minibus taxi industry in Africa is often viewed in a narrow and negative light — associated with informality, poor regulation, and operational opacity. However, a recent AfriIntel investigation into a lender operating within this very sector revealed a different, and arguably more critical, story.

Rather than confirming common assumptions about taxi operators or associations, it was the financial structures around them that raised questions. It was a reminder that risk often sits where you’re least expecting it — and that discreet source work remains one of the most effective tools for seeing the full picture.

Across the continent, the minibus taxi sector is central to daily life. In many major African economies, it is the dominant mode of public transport — moving the vast majority of urban commuters and providing employment and income for tens of thousands. Though often categorised as informal, the industry is economically significant, politically relevant, and deeply embedded in the social fabric of the cities it serves.

Unsurprisingly, this scale has attracted commercial finance. Vehicle credit providers — some well established, others newly formed — offer operators access to vehicles through lease-to-own models. In a due diligence investigation for a private client, we were asked to assess a vehicle finance company focused on the sector. What looked on paper like a clean business was, according to multiple well-placed sources, far from it.

Source commentary raised a number of reputational and regulatory concerns. These weren’t theoretical risks — they were operational realities shared by people who had worked in or around the business. What stood out was that the taxi industry itself wasn’t at the centre of these concerns. Operators and associations, often painted as the problem, were in many cases being exposed to high-cost finance under terms they didn’t fully understand.

For our client, the findings provided vital context that would have been difficult to surface through public record checks alone. It was a clear example of how discreet human intelligence — triangulated from sector insiders and professionals with direct exposure — can deliver insight that shapes commercial decisions.

AfriIntel supports clients with intelligence-led due diligence and investigations across Africa — helping them see beyond the public record and make better-informed decisions.